Teory Madrigali/ClimateScritto da Webmaster
a cordial greeting to all users of Meteoclima single administrator Roberto Madrigali. In this space, will shortly publish the English text of my research and study on climate change, titled "Thesis Madrigali Climate Change - Climate change linked to the jet stream and the polar vortex with its expansion-contraction.
expert analyst physical-mathematical and climate / microclimate
The Madrigali theory
I formulated my hypothesis on climate changes through a long and careful study of the dynamic phenomenon of the atmosphere and particularly of the Jet Stream time configurations related to the expansion-contraction of the Polar Vortex.
The statistical data of the observation of the planet identify a precise trend, which forms the basis for my theory. The analyses of statistical series throughout the years allows us to understand their possible causes and effects, and try to outline the succession of events. The increase of the average temperature of the planet during the last two decades is not man-made, it is a simple variation due to natural weather conditions which have occurred in the past and which will occur again in the future.
The observation of the jet at high altitude is a tool of great power, enabling us to configure trends in climate changes through the study of temperature and rainfall variations recorded over time at various latitudes. The succession of important and constant variations within the general circulation of the atmosphere underlines the importance of the Polar Vortex depression, present in Arctic and Antarctic areas, which is responsible for the generation of mobile depressions and adjoining oceanic disturbances.
The expansion-contraction phase of the PV detected over the years is the real cause of climate changes: these are connected with the cyclic sequence of climatic events and the jet-stream occurrences within the atmosphere, which trigger intense cyclonic weather conditions and the dominant subtropical circumstances, changing the weather over large areas of the planet.
The change of direction and persistence of the flow at high altitude (jet stream) are all related to rainfall and soil temperature, and cause the different short-time meteorological variations, which tend to form, in the long run, the more important climatic cycles of our planet. In short, there is no division between meteorology and climatology - usually considered unrelated. On the contrary, recordings over the centuries, and mainly over the last decades, have validated the fact that specific thermal properties, in particular atmospheric conditions, go together with dominant trends of the jet at high altitude.
The key to the understanding of climatic changes lies in the timing of reciprocal movements and exchanges of arctic and subtropical masses of air - a timing which is casual and yet possesses elements statistically observable. The cyclical direction of climatic changes is triggered by phases of expansion/contraction of the Polar Vortex. Although the global thermal energy radiated by the sun does not vary much in time, it is distributed randomly according to the different phases of the PV. Observations from satellites have confirmed both the constancy in time of the incoming solar energy and the variations of the albedo on the Earth’s surface - meaning the percentage of solar energy which is absorbed or reflected (see Le variazioni del clima, by Mario Pinna, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 46).
Within the PV expansion phase, the polar jet stream extends its influence to the south, causing the contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The exact contrary, of course, happens during the PV contraction phases. Astronomical side-causes are almost irrelevant in such process. On the contrary, the characteristics of the earth’s surface (continents and/or oceans, etc) interested by the warming/cooling effects is of great momentum.
In terms of the earth’s climatic history it is easy to observe that the general circulation of the atmosphere has always determined meteorological and thermic variations at the ground level. During the ’40th and ’50thdecades the African subtropical anticyclone has shifted to the North, invading part of the European continent and causing very dry and warm summers. According to some theories, this might have been the apex of the warm interglacial period, at the end of the 13.000 years statistically marking the transition between different phases. In fact the decades between the ’60th and the ’70th have registered a remarkable cooling off, in part due to a slackening of the Gulf Stream’s influence. From the ‘80th we record a new warming phase, which to my opinion has not reached exceptional levels. IN fact, considering the extended timing – 13.000 years – of the interglacial phase which is now due to be finished, the 20 to 30 years under consideration have no meaning at all.
The Polar Vortex and the Jet Stream are responsible for the ground climatic changes
In our approach to understanding our Planet’s climatic variations, we must consider that the northern hemisphere has a much greater surface which is occupied by continental areas - compared to the southern hemisphere.
My theory is that, when a glacial period takes over, the Polar Vortex and the general atmospheric circulation are the causes which create a cold dominant effect on the boreal continents, and contemporarily a warmer dominant effect on the southern oceans. On a planetary scale such occurrences bring on a general average colder climate, with a particular accentuation on the northern hemisphere, due to the albedo effects, and the descent of the polar front at lower latitudes.
The inversion of the phase will be triggered by initial disturbances in the in the “normal” spring/summer climatic passage. The instauration of an unequivocal glacial-era trend is not going to be a linear process. It will imply irregular extreme and catastrophic events, evolving in time toward a new and quieter cold period.
The observation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations indexes - for instance regarding the years between 1950 and 1975 - shows that worsening conditions of such indexes are related to possible analogous trends in climatic changes, in accordance with the different phases of expansion/contraction of the Polar Vortex. During the so-called Little Glacial Era (about A.D. 1500-1870) the influence of the Jet Stream has been determinant in the worsening of the temperature and general atmospheric conditions. During the LGE, as in other similar circumstances, including the “great” glacial eras, it is pointless to look at the Sun (sunspots) as a possible cause. There is no variation of the Sun’s radiance, what varies is the distribution of such radiance within the different latitudes. The study of historical documents makes it clear that long trends (in terms of centuries and millenniums) admits of shorter counteractive trends (from ten years to a few centuries).
In particular, during interglacial eras, we can observe an initial trend (head), a central warm phase (post glacial optimum) and a warm tail (the phase we are leaving now), gradually inclining towards colder spells. In this way our planet alternates – in casual yet repetitive ways – glacial and interglacial eras, with a time span of about 100.000 years. Such climatic extremes have modified the life of our planet and might have contributed to the extinction of dinosaurs (during the last glacial era about 75% of the previously existing species got extinct).
The so-called Anthropogenic Global Warming is contradicted by the cold extremes touched during the winters of 1929, 1957, 1985, which are a confirmation of a more general trend towards a global cooling process in action. During a presumed global warming the average rising temperature should be expected to mitigate the peaks of winter cold spells, with a consistent reduction of snow falls. Available graphics of Arctic and Antarctic packs clearly show a cooling process in act, following the warm temperature optimum of the 80th and 90th. It is true that the Arctic has suffered a diminution in the extension of its ice pack, however this is due to the effect of a thermal inertia following the already cited ’80-90th warm period.
During the last two years both the Arctic and Antarctic ice packs have increased, although somewhat slower as regards the first. The South Pole, on the contrary, has suffered a series of cold peaks, probably due to the different ratio between continental and oceanic areas. The prevalence of oceanic expanses versus continental masses typical of the southern hemisphere has indeed anticipated the global cooling tendency, compared to the northern hemisphere. WE have observed two winters with colder than average temperatures, especially in South America, and also in South Africa and Northern Australia. Contemporarily one has observed strong thermal anomalies in the areas of the Tropic of Capricorn and the Equator.
Some of the most recent extreme events:
June 17th 2010: 500 African penguins have died because of cold conditions affecting South Africa.
July 19th 2010: South Africa, glacial cold peaks destroy hundreds of thermal solar collectors.
August 5th 2010: snow storms and temperatures under 0° C in Brazil, around the river Plate. Tropical fish die in mass.
August 6th 2010 : South America suffer cold spells. In eastern Bolivia temperatures fall under -6° C and many fish, turtles and reptiles die, polluting the waters. In Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Brasil, unusual temperatures kill people and animals. Patagonia is covered by a snow carpet about 1 metre thick. The production of orange and lemon fruits in Chile declined up to 40%.
August 9th 2010. Sydney woke up in freezing conditions. It was the coldest day in 30 years.
The cooling trend already in progress in the Antarctic will be followed within the next decades in the Arctic, unleashing a fall-off of global temperatures. The influx of Albedo, due to the rising of reflection from the Antarctic and Arctic packs will be a prime factor in the intensification of cold temperatures caused by the Polar Vortex. The increase of rain and snow fall in the U.S.A., Asia and Europe during the months of November and December in the latest years is just a hint of what is to follow. The progression of the cold is already breaking into the intermediate seasons and is going to drastically contract summers.
In sum, my research points out to the following conclusions. The anthropogenic Global Warming is a illusory misunderstanding of a gradual process which, on the contrary, points clearly towards a Global Cooling: this is due to the fact that we are leaving the last phase of an interglacial era.
Such a gradual yet inexorable trend can be seen in the shortening of summers, precocious autumns and colder winters in Europe and the southern hemisphere, together with a clear recession of subtropical conditions, in retreat versus the Polar Vortex influence.
Roberto Madrigali, an expert on climatic changes, work as a meteorologist for ROMAUNO TV broadcast (Rome) and TV9 broadcast of Grosseto (Tuscany). He is sole administrator of the Internet portal,www.meteoclima.net.