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Central England Temperature Anomalies "Physics Dr. Clive Best In evidenza

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 Central England Temperature Anomalies "Physicst Dr. Clive Best"

Posted on January 4, 2015 by Clive Best

The Met Office reports  that 2014 was the warmest year in the 354 year series of temperature measurements in central england. Ed Hawkins also has a post on this.

So is it true and what does it really mean?

annual mean temperatures since 1990 to 2014. The red line is a long term trend fit described below.

Well 2014 does indeed scrape through  above 2006 as the warmest year, but the quoted measurement error is 0.1C.  So statistically it would be more correct  to say that it is  60% probable that 2014 broke the record. However in this post I want to understand better the full time series and identify a  long term warming trend in CET.

This gives a rather different narrative than the simplistic one of just CO2 induced warming of the UK climate.

 

The data shows that there has definitely been a slow but continuous warming trend since 1660 until the present time staring well before the industrial revolution. Furthermore there is no obvious evidence of any CO2 induced acceleration in warming as emissions increased post 195o.

So let’s do something a little different and calculate temperature anomalies relative to that long term trend instead of relative to 1961-1990. The result of this procedure is shown below

 

Relative to the 350 year long term trend there is no real evidence for any recent anthropogenic warming. Now let’s simply put a spline through the anomaly data to see if there are  shorter time scale trends.>>>>>>>

READ THE REST>>>>link >>Clive Best

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