Central England Temperature Anomalies "Physics Dr. Clive Best In evidenzaScritto da Roberto Madrigali
Central England Temperature Anomalies "Physicst Dr. Clive Best"
The Met Office reports that 2014 was the warmest year in the 354 year series of temperature measurements in central england. Ed Hawkins also has a post on this.
So is it true and what does it really mean?
annual mean temperatures since 1990 to 2014. The red line is a long term trend fit described below.
Well 2014 does indeed scrape through above 2006 as the warmest year, but the quoted measurement error is 0.1C. So statistically it would be more correct to say that it is 60% probable that 2014 broke the record. However in this post I want to understand better the full time series and identify a long term warming trend in CET.
This gives a rather different narrative than the simplistic one of just CO2 induced warming of the UK climate.
The data shows that there has definitely been a slow but continuous warming trend since 1660 until the present time staring well before the industrial revolution. Furthermore there is no obvious evidence of any CO2 induced acceleration in warming as emissions increased post 195o.
So let’s do something a little different and calculate temperature anomalies relative to that long term trend instead of relative to 1961-1990. The result of this procedure is shown below
Relative to the 350 year long term trend there is no real evidence for any recent anthropogenic warming. Now let’s simply put a spline through the anomaly data to see if there are shorter time scale trends.>>>>>>>